SXperts Logo 2020

It’s the second Triple Crown of the season, and we have Aaron Plessinger on this week to help us break down stats and lock in our picks. Check it out.

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2020 Arlington Track Map

Tampa Race Recap

  • Eli Tomac got his starts in the heat and the main
  • Blake Baggett went down in his heat race
  • Broc Tickle went on a tear – qualified for the main event from his heat
  • Adam Cianciarulo crashed in the main event while up front
  • Ken Roczen crashed in the main event
  • The 722 made his first main event of the year
  • Justin Hill got a top-5 finish
  • It was a bad night for the white bikes – Jason Anderson and Zach Osborne both did poorly

Tampa Results

  • 1st – Eli Tomac
  • 2nd – Cooper Webb
  • 3rd – Ken Roczen
  • 4th – Justin Barcia
  • 5th – Justin Hill
  • WC (15th) – Tyler Bowers

2020 Tampa Lap Chart

SXperts’ Points

  • Christain – 51 points, 237 total
  • Chase: 30 points, 321 total

RMFantasySX Stats

  • 51% of users had Eli Tomac for the win – next closest was Cooper Webb with 20.3%
  • The riders that were chosen in the 1st-4th positions actually took the spot they were picked most in
  • Jason Anderson was in 55% of user’s top-5 picks
  • Average score: 50.59 points
  • Only .25% of players picked Justin Hill for 5th place – 3.3% had him in the WC
  • 19% of players had Tyler Bowers correct for the WC – 20% of players picked Friese
  • More people picked Jason Anderson and Blake Baggett for the top 5 than Justin Barcia

Tampa 450SX Podium
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Arlington 2019

  • Eli Tomac climbed all the way from a 12th place start to a 1st place finish
  • Cooper Webb passed Ken Roczen for the closest finish in Supercross history
  • 2019 Results:
    • 1st – Cooper Webb
    • 2nd- Ken Roczen
    • 3rd – Marvin Musquin
    • 4th – Blake Baggett
    • 5th – Joey Savatgy

Injury Report

  • Justin Bogle, Chris Blose, Benny Bloss, Blake Baggett

Track Trends

  • Features a long whoops section
  • Features a long rhythm lane
  • Has a 180° start – could help riders separate

Top Contenders

    Ken Roczen

    • Last three standard round overall finishes: 3-6-3
    • Was the first rider to go 1-1-1 in a Triple Crown race
    • Starts at the last Triple Crown race: 2-1-1
    • Has the best average overall finish: 2.67
    • Has led the most laps this season: 81
    • Didn’t win a race on the East Coast in 2019 – had an average start of 7.5 and finish of 5.4
    • Hasn’t finished behind where he’s qualified all season

Roczen at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

    Eli Tomac

    • Last three standard round overall finishes: 1-4-1
    • Last three standard round starts: 3-10-3
    • Is tied with Jason Anderson for the fifth best average start per gate drop
    • Starts at the last Triple Crown race: 1-5-12
    • Finishes at the last Triple Crown race: 2-2-3

    Cooper Webb

    • Starts at the last Triple Crown race: 13-2-2
    • Finishes at the last Triple Crown race: 8-5-4
    • Had the third best average start (5.67) and fourth best average finish (5.67) at the last Triple Crown race
    • Has taken 2nd or 1st in every round that he’s qualified in 4th or better at this season
    • Has the second fastest average lap time at Tampa

    Justin Barcia

    • Last three overall finishes: 4-5-6
    • Last three starts: 14-7-11
    • Starts at the last Triple Crown race: 7-10-10
    • Has the fourth best average finish for the season
    • Has only finished outside of the top 5 twice this year
    • Has finished better than where he’s started in every main event this season – has only started in the top 3 twice
    • Finished in 4th place at Tampa with only the seventh fastest lap time

Barcia at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Spoilers

    Adam Cianciarulo

    • Last three overall finishes: 8-2-4
    • Is consistently a top qualifier
    • Had the second fastest lap time in the main event at Tampa – behind Eli Tomac
    • Average Triple Crown starts: 6.11
    • Has led the third most laps (37) – behind Ken Roczen and Eli Tomac
    • He’s started 1-1 in the last two rounds but still hasn’t won

    Jason Anderson

    • Got a 15th place start at Tampa after being pushed off the track by Malcolm Stewart
    • Was docked positions for skipping the whoop section in the last lap at Tampa
    • Last three overall finishes: 10-14-5
    • Finished in 3rd place overall at Glendale
    • Had finished in the top 5 every round until San Diego – has now been finished behind his starts in the last two rounds
    • Average start per gate drop: 7.44
    • Starts at the last Triple Crown race: 5-6-3
    • Missed the top 5 in only one of the eight East Coast rounds in 2018 – missed the podium in only three of those races

Anderson at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

    Blake Baggett

    • Crashed in the heat race and didn’t line up for the main event at Tampa
    • Last three standard round finishes: 22-3-9
    • Has the fourth best average start (7.13) of all main event gate drops this season
    • Average start per gate drop in 2019 Triple Crown races: 8.78
    • Finishes an average of 4.5 spots from where he qualifies – could be ahead of or behind

    Dean Wilson

    • Last three overall finishes: 6-13-7
    • He’s more of a risky bet
    • Didn’t start in the top 10 in any of the main events at Glendale
    • Average start at Glendale: 14
    • Was one of the only five riders to have a lap time at 48 seconds at Tampa – proof he has the speed

    Malcolm Stewart

    • Has finished in the top 10 every round this season
    • Finished in 7th place at Glendale
    • Told reporters that he got tired last week in the main event
    • Is finishing 1.7 spots from where he qualifies
    • Hasn’t finished more than two spots from qualifying in the last three races

Malcolm Stewart at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Wildcard Watch (9th)

    Justin Brayton

    • Average finish per gate drop: 8.33
    • Average start per gate drop: 10.89
    • Has finished between 7th and 9th place overall in five of the seven rounds this year

    Justin Hill

    • Last three overall finsihes: 5-9-8
    • Has started in the top 10 in every main event this season except for Main 2 at Glendale
    • Got his worst qualifying (12th) and best overall finish (5th) of the season at Tampa
    • Took 12th overall at Glendale
    • Took 9th overall at San Diego

Justin Hill at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

    Zach Osborne

    • Last three overall finishes: 21-22-5
    • Hasn’t finished more than three sports from where he’s qualified over the last three rounds
    • Finished 22-11-22 with a DNF in the first main and a DNS in the third main at Glendale

    Aaron Plessinger

    • Has the 7th best average start per gate drop this season (7.89) – better than Justin Hill, Justin Barcia, Malcolm Stewart, Justin Brayton, Zach Osborne, and Dean Wilson
    • Average finish per gate drop for 2020: 11.44
    • Got his best finish of the year (9th) at Glendale
    • Last three standard round starts: 9-3-12

    Broc Tickle

    • Started in 10th place and finished in 12th place at Tampa
    • Finished three spots better than where he qualified at Tampa
    • Took 9th place at Arlington in 2018

Broc Tickle at Tampa Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

SXperts’ Picks

Christian Chase
1st Cooper Webb Eli Tomac
2nd Adam Cianciarulo Adam Cianciarulo
3rd Eli Tomac Cooper Webb
4th Ken Roczen Ken Roczen
5th Justin Barcia Justin Barcia
WC Aaron Plessinger Justin Brayton

Note: Christian and Chase reserve the right to change their picks.

The Start of the 2020 Tampa Supercross
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Prize Recap

  • 1 – 2 Sets of Bridgestone Battlecross Tires – Up to $528.30 MSRP
  • 2 – Bell Moto-9 MIPS Helmet – Up to $419.95 MSRP
  • 3 – O’Neal Jersey, Pants, Gloves, and Helmet – Up to $374.96 MSRP
  • 4 – TLD Gear Hood-Up: (1) Jersey, (2) Pant, and (1) Pair of Gloves – Up to $342.00 MSRP
  • 5 – Fly Racing F2 Carbon MIPS Helmet – Up to $299.95 MSRP
  • 6 – Pro Honda Prize Pack – Up to $270.74 MSRP
  • 7 – Fasst Impact Moto Pegs – Up to $259.99 MSRP
  • 8 – torc1 Control Package – Attack 1 1/8″ Oversize Handlebars, Defy Lock-On MX Grips, and Vengeance V2 Flex Brake and Clutch Lever – Up to $221.96 MSRP
  • 9 – Acerbis $200 Casual Spending Spree
  • 10 – Fox VUE Goggle, Replacement Lens and Tear-Offs – Up to $197.85 MSRP
  • 11 – 100 – $10 Rocky Mountain ATV/MC Gift Card

Do you agree with our picks? Who are you locking in for this weekend? Let us know in the comments below, or head over to our YouTube channel to get in on the conversation!

We’ll see you again next week.

Eli Tomac Whips at the Finish Line of the 2020 Tampa Supercross
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Resources

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