SXperts Logo for 2020

They may be banged up, battered, and bruised from Arlington, but they’re still lining up for Atlanta. Check in with the SXperts and SmarTop/Bullfrog Spas/MotoConcepts Honda rider Justin Hill as they go over and lock in this week’s picks.

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Atlanta 2020 Track Map from Supercross Live

Arlington Race Recap

  • Adam Cianciarulo crashed in qualifying – broke his left collarbone
  • Justin Hill had another good week – fastest qualifier, went 6-3-8 for 6th overall despite a few silly crashes
  • Brayton had a bad night – big crash in practice, another in Main 1, DNS’d the other two mains
  • Dean Wilson went down hard in Main 2 – still rode back to a 9th place finish
  • Cooper Webb lost control in Main 2 and flew off the track – landed right on the concrete and had to be carried to the Medical Mule
    • Later reported that he had hematoma with deep bone bruising to the pelvis and sacrum
    • DNS’d Main 3
    • Says he’s lining up for Atlanta
  • Only 19 riders made it to Main 3
  • Osborne remained (and remains) hard to pass
  • Anderson crashed into a camera during Main 3 – reminiscent of the AStars crew member he crashed into earlier
  • Justin Barcia continues to sneakily stay in the top 5 – finished in 4th overall

Arlington Results

  • 1st – Eli Tomac
  • 2nd – Ken Roczen
  • 3rd – Jason Anderson
  • 4th – Justin Barcia
  • 5th – Zach Osborne
  • WC (9th) – Dean Wilson

Lap Chart for Main Even 1

Lap Chart for Main Even 2

Lap Chart for Main Even 3

SXPerts’ Points

  • Christian: 40 points, 277 total
  • Chase: 46 points, 367 total

RMFantasySX Stats

  • Only one user got a perfect score
  • 41.77% of players got at least two picks right
  • Average points: 48.71
  • 61.95% of players picked Anderson for the top 5 – only 6.11% of them got him correct in 3rd place
  • Cooper Webb was in 97.22% of people’s picks
  • 20.32% of players had Justin Brayton picked for the WC – picked more than any other rider
  • Only .57% of players did not have Tomac in one of their top 5 picks

Injury Report

  • Justin Brayton
  • Justin Bogle
  • Chris Blose
  • Benny Bloss
  • Adam Cianciarulo
  • Broc Tickle
  • Cooper Webb

Atlanta 2019

  • Was an East/West showdown
  • Webb took the holeshot – held the lead through the whole race even with Marvin Musquin getting physical and tried to take it
  • Tomac started in 13th place – climbed all the way up to 6th place
  • The sand section got gnarly – claimed a few riders
  • Musquin and Baggett battled through the final laps for 2nd place
  • Atlanta 2019 Results:
    • 1st – Cooper Webb
    • 2nd – Blake Baggett
    • 3rd – Marvin Musquin
    • 4th – Ken Roczen
    • 5th – Aaron Plessinger

Cooper Webb on the Podium at Atlanta Supercross 2019
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Track Trends

  • Features three 180° turns to start the race
  • Has a ski jump into a sand section
  • The whoops section is smaller
  • Has a split lane rhythm section
  • Reincorporates the starting lane

Top Contenders

Eli Tomac

  • Hasn’t finished out of the top 5 or worse than 4th place since A1
  • Has qualified in 2nd every round this season
  • Took 6th place in Atlanta last year after getting a horrible start
  • Has started as far back at 10th place this year and still won a race
  • Has the seventh most all-time main event wins – everyone above him on the list has won at least two Supercross titles
  • Has the best average finish per gate drop (2.67) but only sixth best average start (7.25)
  • Had the fastest single lap time last weekend (45.817) and had the fastest lap time in two of the three main events
  • Still only has a 7 point lead over Roczen

Eli Tomac had the Red Plate at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Ken Roczen

  • Hasn’t finished worse than 6th all year – that’s better than any other rider this season
  • Has only missed the podium twice this year
  • Took 1st place at Glendale after taking 2nd place at A2 – just took 2nd place at Arlington
  • Finished 3rd in the only other East Coast standard round (Tampa)
  • Has only passed Tomac twice this season and only made it stick once – his good finishes are dependent on Tomac’s bad starts
  • Narrowly missed the podium at Atlanta last year – took 4th place
  • Has the second best average overall finish (2.83) and standard round average finish (3.50)
  • Still hasn’t finished behind where he’s qualified this season

Jason Anderson

  • Took the podium at Arlington after missing it for three straight weeks
  • Is still 15 championship points behind Justin Barcia
  • Finished two spots ahead of where he qualified at Arlington – Q:5 F:3
  • Has finished in 3rd or 5th overall in 6 of the 8 rounds this season (3rd 3X, 5th 3X)
  • Got his first holeshot and led his first laps of the season at Arlington
  • Didn’t start or finish worse than 5th at Arlington
  • Won Atlanta in 2018

Justin Barcia

  • Is only one championship point away from Cooper Webb – could move into the top 3 overall after Atlanta
  • Is doing better this season than he has the last four seasons
  • He hasn’t finished out of the top 10 once this season
  • Average overall finish going into round 9 in 2019: 8.5
  • Average overall finish going into round 9 in 2020: 4.5
  • Has better overall average finish per main event gate drop (5.1) this year than Jason Anderson, Adam Cianciarulo, Cooper Webb, and Zach Osborne
  • Started in 11th at Main 2 last week and climbed all the way up to a 5th place finish
  • Less than half of RMFantasySX players had him in their top 5 picks last week
  • Last five finishes (TC included): 4-5-4-4-5
  • Has only finished on the podium when starting 3rd or better in the main (2X)

Justin Barcia Rides Over the Wall at Atlanta Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Spoilers

Cooper Webb

  • Is planning on racing this weekend with his injury
  • Was looking fast before he crashed – finished in 2 in Main 1 and was riding in the top in Main 2 before he crashed out
  • Atlanta was his 5th win of the 2019 season – he’s only won once this season
  • Has the third best average finish in standard rounds (3.83)
  • Hard to tell where he’ll finish at Atlanta
  • In standard rounds this season he hasn’t finished more than 3 spots away from where he’s qualified – includes his 12th place finish in STL where he qualified 15th

Blake Baggett

  • Has been all over the place with finishes this year – has finished between 3rd place and 22nd (DNS) place
  • Last five finishes (TC included): 13-8-10-22-3
  • Qualified in the top 5 when he took 3rd in San Diego
  • Missed the top 5 in only one East Coast round last year
  • Has gotten two holeshots this season – one at San Diego when he took the podium
  • Average start for 2020: 6.36
  • Average finish for 2020: 10.17
  • Has finished 8th or worse in the three main events that he’s started in 2nd place

Blake Baggett Jumps on his KTM at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Zach Osborne

  • Has finished in the top 5 overall three times this season
  • Took back-to-back top 5 finishes at the beginning of the season – could repeat that after taking 5th in Arlington
  • Last five finishes (TC included): 3-4-7-11-11
  • DNF’d at Atlanta last year after getting rough start to his first 450SX season
  • His fastest lap time at Arlington was over a second slower than the fastest lap time for every main event

Malcolm Stewart

  • Still hasn’t finished out of the top 10 this year
  • One of the most consistent finishers – has finished between 7-8 five times this season
  • Average overall finish of 2020: 7.92
  • Didn’t finish more than four spots away from where he started in all three main events last year
  • Last five finishes (TC included): 9-6-8-7-8
  • Finished six spots ahead of where he qualified at Arlington

Justin Hill

  • Has had four back-to-back top-10 finishes
  • Last four overall finishes: 6-5-9-8
  • Finishes in the Arlington TC mains: 8-3-6
  • Made an impressive charge in Main 3 last week – climbed from an 18th place start to the 8th place finish

Justin Hill Goes Over a Jump at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Wildcard Watch (12th)

  • On average, the rider to take 12th overall has qualified exactly 10th this season
  • The rider who started in 12th place also finished in 12th place three times this season (standard rounds only)

Vince Friese

  • The favorite wildcard rider this year
  • Has taken 11th place twice and 13th place once this season
  • Finished in 12th place in three separate TC main events
  • Average overall finish of 2020: 12.25

Martin Davalos

  • Has taken 11th place once, 12th once, and 13th once this season
  • Average overall finish of 2020: 14.33

Dean Wilson

  • Has taken 13th four times this season
  • Average overall finish of 2020: 10.58

Dean Wilson Riding Through the Dirt at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Justin Hill

  • Has taken 12th place twice this season and 11th place twice this season
  • Has finished within the top 10 in the last four rounds
  • Has taken 12th when he started in 9th or worse

Blake Baggett

  • Has finished between 10th-14th place five times in all gate drops this season
  • Average overall finish for 2020: 10.17
  • Took 13th place in the last main event at Arlington

Aaron Plessinger

  • Has taken 12th twice and 10th twice this season
  • Average overall finish of 2020: 10.75
  • Is coming off his best finish of the season (8th) at Arlington

Aaron Plessinger Gets Some Air at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Cooper Webb

  • Has taken 12th twice this season – once when he was sick and the other with his DNS at Arlington
  • Could he salvage a 12th place with his injury?
  • Qualified in 14th place both times he’s taken 12th this year

SXperts’ Picks

Christian Chase
1st Eli Tomac Eli Tomac
2nd Jason Anderson Ken Roczen
3rd Ken Roczen Jason Anderson
4th Justin Hill Justin Hill
5th Blake Baggett Justin Barcia
WC Vince Friese Chad Reed

Note: Christian and Chase reserve the right to change their picks.

Justin Barcia Throws a Whip at Arlington Supercross in 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Weekly Prizes

  • 1st – 4 Sets of Bridgestone Battlecross Tires (4 fronts and 4 rears) & Supercross 3 the Video Game – Up to $1,059.60 MSRP
  • 2nd – Magura Hydraulic Clutch and Magura Hydraulic Clutch Bleed Kit – up to $357.00 MSRP
  • 3rd – Pro Honda Prize Pack – Up to $270.74 MSRP
  • 4th – Fastway Air Ext Motorcycle Foot Pegs – up to $274.95 MSRP
  • 5th – Fly Protection Package – Up to $254.85 MSRP
  • 6th – Fasthouse Jersey, Pants and Gloves – Up to $252.95 MSRP
  • 7th – Works Connection Factory 4 Stand & Titan Skid Plate – Up to $229.90 MSRP
  • 8th – Fox Casual Spending Spree – Up to $200.00
  • 9th – Bell MX-9 MIPS Helmet $169.95 MSRP
  • 10th – $150.00 Acerbis Spending Spree

Have you guys made your picks yet this week? Who do you have taking the win? Let us know in the comments below, or head over to our YouTube channel to get in on the conversation.

We’ll be back next week for Daytona!

Eli Tomac Shines in the Spotlight at Arlington Supercross 2020
Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Resources

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