If you need help making up some points after last week’s unpredictable night of racing, the SXperts are back to breakdown the stats and trends you need to know. Plus, Christian Craig gives his two cents on the last three rounds of racing. Check it out!

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Nashville Recap

  • Webb got the holeshot
  • Musquin was closing in on Webb to take lead of the race before crashing in the whoops – resumed the race in 20th place
  • Savatgy slid in a corner and took Roczen out with him
  • Savatgy DNF’d and Roczen resumed the race in 21st place
  • Tomac had mechanical issues in his heat race, had to go to the LCQ, and came back to win the main event even with the 19th gate pick and an 11th place start
  • Webb got passed by both Tomac and Baggett without putting up much of a fight
  • Osborne got his first top-5 finish
  • Wilson had his second week in the top 5

Nashville Results

  • 1st – Tomac
  • 2nd – Baggett
  • 3rd – Webb
  • 4th – Wilson
  • 5th – Osborne
  • WC (7th) – Seely

Injury Report

  • New: R. Stewart, T. Enticknap, Savatgy (is still racing), Hill (is still racing), Barcia (is out for the rest of the season)
  • Recurring: J. Martin, Bloss, Peick, M. Stewart, Anderson, Friese, Plessinger, Martinez, Reed, Brayton

SXperts Points

  • Stats & Lats
    • Christian: 15
    • Chase: 15
    • Overall Total: 985

  • Slice & Dice
    • Jim: 31
    • Daniel: 33
    • Overall Total: 958


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

RMFantasySX Stats

  • Savatgy was the most picked wildcard at 20.39%
  • Almost as many people that picked Webb to take 1st place (27.19%) picked Roczen (23.26%)
  • Nobody got a perfect score this week
  • Only 55 users had four picks right
  • The average amount of points earned was 25.7
  • Only 2.8% of users had Osborne in their top 5, 10% had him in their wild card

Stat-Breakers

  • Tomac
    • He will only win when you don’t pick him to
      • Only 11.38% of uses picked Tomac to take 1st – lowest it’s been all season
      • More people had Musquin, Webb, and Roczen taking 1st than Tomac
    • More than double the users that picked him to take 1st picked him to take 3rd or 4th place

  • Baggett
    • Only 43.91% of users had him in their top 5, and only 1.90% of those users had him taking 2nd place
      • Almost as many users (1.10%) had Wilson taking 2nd place


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Another Week, Another New Venue

It’s a year of firsts for Supercross! The other new venue for this season is Broncos Stadium, otherwise known as Mile High Stadium, in Denver, Colorado. Want to guess why it’s called Mile High Stadium? If you guessed that the nickname comes from the stadium’s elevation, you’d be right; the elevation is exactly a mile high at 5,280 feet. Whether it affects the riders or not, the elevation change is going to be the talk of the night. This is the highest a Supercross race has ever been, second to Salt Lake City, UT that has an elevation of 4,226 feet. To get a better estimate of how damaging the elevation could be, take a two-year look at some of the top rider’s average finishes at the past highest elevation track – SLC – compared to their average finishes of this year.

RiderSalt Lake CityAverage Finish of 2019
Eli Tomac1.53.79
Marvin Musquin2.53.36
Blake Baggett5.56.79
Cooper Webb93.07
Dean Wilson117.36


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Points Battle

Here’s a look at the average qualifying, starts, and finishes for the last three rounds for the top contenders, as well as how many laps they’ve led.

RiderFinishStartQualifyingLaps Led
Webb2.663.559.66112
Tomac2.667.44473
Musquin332.3369
Roczen6.665.16255

  • Webb
    • Has a 21 point lead over Tomac and Musquin
    • If he gains three points over them in the next two rounds, he will have the championship in the bag before Vegas
    • May be playing it safe – started first in Nashville and finished in 3rd place
    • Has only taken the podium in three out of the seven West Coast rounds
    • All of those podiums were 1st place wins
    • Had his two worst finishes of the season (10th and 8th) on the West Coast
    • Has the worst average finish on the West Coast (5.6) out of the top 4 riders
    • Last five finishes: 2-3-4-1-3

  • Tomac
    • Came back from the LCQ and an 11th place start to win the race at Nashville
    • Was on the podium four out of seven rounds on the West Coast
    • Hasn’t taken back-to-back podiums once this year
    • Hasn’t qualified or finished worse than 6th in the last seven rounds
    • Has finished out of the top 5 overall only three times this season
    • Needs to gain 7.33 points on Webb every round to win the championship
    • Denver is considered his hometown race – he is used to the high elevation
    • Last five finishes: 1-4-3-4-1


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Musquin
    • Had his first finish out of the top 5 in five rounds at Nashville
    • Hasn’t missed the top 5 in back-to-back rounds this year
    • His average finish on the West Coast (3.60) is almost exactly the same as it is on the East (3.17)
    • Has the 3rd best average West Coast finish
    • Needs to gain 7.33 points on Webb every round to win the championship
    • Won SLC last year – has no problem with elevation
    • Last five finishes: 3-1-1-2-6

  • Roczen
    • The man can’t catch a break
      • Injured his foot and DNF’d the second main event Houston – finished 10th overall
      • Ran right into Savatgy in Nashville – finished 8th
    • Qualified in 1st for the last two weeks in a row – Denver could be his week to win if he’s a top qualifier again
    • Has finished out of the top 5 in four of the last five rounds
    • His West Coast average finish (3.00) is over two spots better than his East Coast average finish (5.33)
    • Last five finishes: 8-8-2-10-8


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Spoilers

  • Baggett
    • Started and finished in the top 5 at Nashville
    • The last two times he’s taken 2nd, he’s qualified in 7th
    • Finished in top 5 in rounds 15-17 last year
    • Took 3rd in SLC in 2018
    • Minus his DNF, his average East Coast finish (2.80) is almost four spots better than his average finish on the West Coast (6.40)
    • Two of his three worst finishes were on the West Coast (12-15)
    • On average has finished one spot better than his qualifying in West Coast standard rounds
    • Hasn’t taken back-to-back podiums this year
    • Last five finishes: 4-2-7-8-2

  • Wilson
    • Has had two top-5 finishes in the last two rounds
    • Hasn’t qualified worse than 3rd in the last three rounds
    • Has finished the same or one spot different than where he started in the last five main event gate drops
    • Has finished in the top 10 in the last four rounds
    • Finished in the top 10 in six of the seven West Coast rounds
    • Cracked the top 5 in three of the seven West Coast rounds
    • In the last seven rounds, he’s qualified anywhere from 1st-6th and has placed anywhere from 3rd – 11th
    • Last five finishes: 11-9-6-3-4


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Osborne
    • His finishes have gotten progressively better in the last three rounds
    • Has had one top-5 overall finish this season – was at Nashville (5th)
    • Hasn’t finished out of the top 10 on the West Coast
    • Has only raced two West Coast rounds this year
    • Hasn’t finished more than two spots different from his start in the last four main event gate drops
    • Last five finishes: 6-7-8-6-5

  • Seely
    • His best overall finish of the year (5th) was on the West Coast
    • Has finished in the top 10 in six of the 14 rounds this season
    • Average West Coast finish (10.60) is one spot worse than his East Coast finish (9.83)
    • Average West Coast finish is 3.33 spots from his average West Coast start
    • Last five finishes: 13-12-9-5-7

  • Savatgy
    • Has been in the top 5 four rounds this year
    • Only one of those four rounds was on the West Coast
    • His DNF in Nashville was his first overall finish out of the top 10 in 11 rounds
    • Has only finished in the top 5 when qualifying 7th or better this year
    • Last five finishes: 5-6-5-9-22


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Wildcard Watch (14th)

  • Lamay
    • Has finished 13th once, 14th twice, and 15th twice in all gate drops this season
    • Average finish of 2019: 16.62
    • Has finished 14th in two of the last three rounds
    • Has made 13/14 main events this year
    • Has placed between 13th-15th five times this year
    • Last five finishes: 18-21-14-14-12

  • Chisholm
    • Has finished 13th twice, 14th once, and 15th three times in all gate drops this season
    • Average finish of 2019: 16.23
    • Has finished 13th in two of the last three rounds
    • Has made 13/14 main events this year
    • Has placed between 13th-15th in five rounds this season
    • Last five finishes: 15-16-19-13-13

  • Hill
    • Has finished 13th four times, 14th four times, and 15th once this season
    • Average finish of 2019: 12.83
    • Has placed between 13th-15th six times this year
    • Last five finishes: 7-14-12-11-20


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Bogle
    • Has finished 13th once, 14th four times, and 15th once in all gate drops this season
    • Average finish of 2019: 13.14
    • Has had top-10 finishes in two of the last three rounds
    • Has made 14/14 main events this year
    • Last five finishes: 14-15-11-7-9

  • Bowers
    • Has finished 13th twice, 14th twice, and 15th three times in all gate drops this season
    • A2 and forward, Bowers has placed somewhere between 10th and 16th place
    • Average finish of 2019: 13.33
    • Has had top-10 finishes in two of the last three rounds
    • Has made 13/14 main events this year
    • Last five finishes: 16-13-10-12-10


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

SXperts’ Picks

Christian Chase
1st Marvin Musquin Eli Tomac
2nd Ken Roczen Ken Roczen
3rd Cooper Webb Marvin Musquin
4th Eli Tomac Blake Baggett
5th Blake Baggett Cooper Webb
WC Tyler Bowers Ben Lamay

Note: Christian and Chase reserve the right to change their picks.

There are some amazing prizes up for grabs this week:

Prize Recap

  • 1st – MSR NXT Gear Set, MAV4 Helmet & Supercross 2 The Video Game
  • 2nd – TLD SE4 Composite Helmet – Up to $479.00 MSRP
  • 3rd – Fly Racing F2 Carbon MIPS Helmet – Up to $299.95 MSRP
  • 4th – Pro Honda Prize Pack – Up to $289.20 MSRP
  • 5th – 1 set of Pirelli MX 32 Mid To Hard Terrain Tires – Up To $259.25 MSRP
  • 6th – 100% Racecraft Plus Goggle & Type-S Sunglasses – Up to $235.00 MSRP
  • 7th – Fox $200 Casual Spending Spree
  • 8th – Acerbis $180.00 Spending Spree
  • 9th – Bell MX-9 MIPS Helmet – $159.95 MSRP
  • 10th – Dirt Tricks Zirconium Front & Rear Sprocket – Up To $156.75 MSRP
  • 11th-100th – $10 Rocky Mountain ATV/MC Gift Cards


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

The closer we come to the end of the season, the closer you come to taking one of the incredible grand prizes, too. So, if you’re watching for rollover picks and keeping up with the SXperts, you just may win:

Grand Prizes

  • 1st – Race-Prepped KTM 450SX-F
  • 2nd – Race-Prepped KTM 250SX-F
  • 3rd – Moab Red Rock Getaway plus Generator
  • 4th – Monster Energy Cup Trip
  • 5th – Dunlop Broc Glover Legend Ride
  • 6th – Milestone Video Games, Supercross 2 Video Game, Gaming Console, and 4K TV
  • 7th – Motion Pro Tools
  • 8th – Motool Slacker Digital Sag Scale V2 & Ballistic Nylon Case
  • 9th – Tusk Impact Wheel Set
  • 10th – Oakley Goggles and Sunglasses


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

We’ll see you in East Rutherford after the break.

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