After getting wet and wild in California, it’s time to get cold and calculated in Minneapolis. With only 8 points between the top 4 riders, round 6 is going to be all about technique, precision, and podiums. Follow up with the SXperts as they go over stats and the best picks for this week.

What Happened in San Diego

  • One of the worst mud races in a while
  • 10th place got lapped for the 450s, 8th place got lapped for the 250s
  • Roczen had the holeshot before crashing in the first corner
  • Tomac led the rest of the race and won
  • 450SX podium: Tomac, Musquin, Roczen

Injury Report

SXperts Points

  • Stats & Lats
    • Christian: 36
    • Chase: 52
    • Overall Total: 288

  • Slice & Dice
    • Jim: 10
    • Daniel: 31
    • Overall Total: 208


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

RMFantasySX Stats

  • 45.01% of users picked Tomac to take 1st
  • 91 users put Cole Martinez as their wild card – more players had Tomac in the wild card position (165)
  • Only 59 users got at least 4 picks right – no one got 5
  • 63.72% of players had 3 picks in their top 5
  • 129 People had Bogle in 4th place
  • 25% of players picked Reed for the wild card

Stat-Breakers

Every round this season, it seems that there has been one rider that made it into the top 5 that players weren’t expecting. These stat-breakers prove that the podium is always up for grabs, and it’s okay to take some risks in your picks. Let’s take a look at some of the surprise riders this season and just how many people saw it coming.

RoundRiderPos.How Many People Got it Right?
1Dean Wilson41.81%
2Blake Baggett10.41%
3Cooper Webb10.33%
4Blake Baggett35.39%
5Justin Bogle40.19%

Minneapolis – 2018

  • Was a Triple Crown in 2018
  • Tomac got the holeshot in the first main
  • Ben Lamay got the holeshot in the second main, then fell to 17th place – Brayton led that race, but Musquin won
  • Kyle Cunningham got the holeshot in the 3rd main, but Anderson ended up leading
  • Final podium: Tomac, Anderson, Musquin


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Average Finishes – Then and Now

Here’s a year-over-year look at the riders’ finishes in the first 5 rounds.

Rider20192018
Aaron Plessinger9.8N/A*
Adam EnticknapN/A10.5
Alex Ray18.518.6
Ben Lamay17.518.25
Benny Bloss†N/A20
Blake Baggett87.6
Chad Reed1015.6
Cole Seely106
Cooper Webb59.4
Dean Wilson714.67
Eli Tomac39
Jeremy Martin†N/A11
Joey Savagty13N/A*
Justin Barica94.2
Justin Bogle1317
Justin Brayton†106.6
Justin Hill†13.25N/A*
Ken Roczen3.44
Kyle CunninghamN/A16.75
Malcom Stewart14.514.25
Marvin Musquin3.85.75
Tyler Bowers14.7516.5
Vince Friese12.214.4
Zach Osborne†N/AN/A*

*250SX Rider in 2018
†Injured Rider

East vs. West Coast Average Finishes for 2018

Since Minneapolis will be the first East Coast round of this season, check out how the riders’ finishes changed from coast to coast last year.

RiderWest CoastEast Coast
Adam Enticknap1919.5
Alex Ray18.3318
Ben Lamay16.217.6
Benny Bloss†13.3313.33
Blake Baggett66.83
Chad Reed13.2514.83
Cole Seely6.45
Cooper Webb10.175
Dean Wilson10.836.33
Eli Tomac8.863.67
Jeremy Martin†10.5N/A
Justin Barcia59
Justin Bogle17N/A
Justin Brayton9.136
Ken Roczen6.4N/A
Malcom Stewart†15.299.67
Marvin Musquin2.572.33
Tyler Bowers14.4313.67
Vince Friese1212.83

*450SX rookies Aaron Plessinger, Joey Savatgy, Justin Hill, and Zach Osborne are not on this table.
†Injured Rider

Points Battle

  • Eli Tomac
    • Got first 450SX win of 2019 at San Diego
    • Has the best average finish of 2019
    • 3 times is the most one rider has been on the podium – Tomac has been on the podium 3x this season
    • Has gotten 1st in the last two Minneapolis races


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Ken Roczen
    • Hasn’t started or finished worse than 6th this season
    • Has led 19 laps this season but hasn’t won a main event
    • Hasn’t ever raced at Minneapolis
    • Aside from when he crashed out in 2017, Roczen has been 2nd in points standings by round 6 since 2015
      • Currently 3rd in points standings (tied with Musquin)

  • Marvin Musquin
    • San Diego was his 3rd consecutive 2nd place of 2019, putting him 2nd in points standings
    • Has finished in the top 5 when he’s qualified in the top 5 this year
    • Has been on the podium both rounds of Minneapolis
      • 2018: 3rd
      • 2017: 2nd

  • Cooper Webb
    • Was much better in the East Coast than West Coast in 2018
    • 8 points behind the points leader
    • Average finish of 2018 was 5 spots better on the East Coast vs. the West Coast


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

Spoilers

  • Justin Barcia
    • Hasn’t started or finished worse than 10th (minus his DNF from mechanical issues in San Diego)
    • Placed 5th overall at Minneapolis last year (3,7,4)
    • Has the 4th best starting avg. in standard rounds (5.5)
    • Hasn’t finished in the top 5 since taking 1st at A1


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Blake Baggett
    • Has podiumed every other week, will he podium in Minneapolis?
    • Standard round average finish of 2019: 6.25
    • Placed 8th overall at last years Triple Crown after a bad third main (6,5,12)
    • On average, finished one spot worse in the East than in the West in 2018

Wild Card (8th)

The wild card pick is 8th place this week, and there are a few things you should keep in mind. Firstly, a different rider has taken 8th place every round this season (Musquin, Wilson, Savatgy, Brayton, Webb). Secondly, on average for this season, the rider who has taken the wild card position qualified 3.8 spots behind it. Keep reading to see what riders we think are good wild card candidates.

  • Aaron Plessinger
    • Average finish of 2019 is 9.80, but he has finished 6th twice this season and almost cracked the top 5
    • Has the best finishes and averages of the 450SX rookies so far
    • Has gotten 7th or better start in the last two standard rounds


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Cole Seely
    • On average, finishes 4.4 places from where he qualifies
    • Season average finish: 10.00
    • Has finished 9th once this season (Glendale)

  • Dean Wilson

  • Joey Savatgy
    • Has finished 8th once (A2) and 7th once (San Diego)
    • Finished 8th when he qualified in 8th


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

  • Justin Bogle
    • Has had two top 10 finishes in a row
    • Has had great starts the past two races (2,3)

SXperts’ Picks

Christian Chase
1st Eli Tomac Eli Tomac
2nd Marvin Musquin Blake Baggett
3rd Ken Roczen Ken Roczen
4th Cooper Webb Cooper Webb
5th Blake Baggett Marvin Musquin
WC Aaron Plessinger Zach Osborne

Note: Christian and Chase reserve the right to change their picks.

If you haven’t signed up for RMFantasySX yet or still need to make your picks, click the link below. There are some amazing prizes up for grabs this week, and you don’t want to miss out!

Prize Recap

  • 1st – Wrench Rabbit Engine Rebuild Kit – Up To $1229.95 MSRP
  • 2nd – Acerbis $425.00 Spending Spree
  • 3rd – Leatt GPX 5.5 V19 Helmet – Up to $399.99 MSRP
  • 4th – Pro Honda Prize Pack – Up to $289.20 MSRP
  • 5th – OGIO Wheeled Rig 9800 Gear Bag – Up to $269.99 MSRP
  • 6th – 1 Set of Pirelli MX 32 Mid-Hard Terrain Tires – Up To $259.25 MSRP
  • 7th – Revarc Dirt Bike Loading System – Up to $219.99 MSRP
  • 8th – Fox $200 Casual Spending Spree
  • 9th – Fly Casual Spending Spree – up to $175.00
  • 10th – Bell MX-9 MIPS Helmet $159.95 MSRP
  • 11th-100th – $10 Rocky Mountain ATV/MC Gift Cards

Don’t miss out on the SXperts, either. Subscribe to our YouTube channel to keep up with them and the Race Day Live rivalry, or listen via your favorite podcast app.


Photo Credit: Kardy Photo

See you in Arlington!

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